Political Dictionary
An opinion poll surveys a sample of people to estimate attitudes or candidate support in a larger population.
Definition
An opinion poll is a structured survey designed to measure public preferences, beliefs, approval, or voting intentions. Pollsters select a sample, ask standardized questions, and weight results to represent the target population. Poll quality depends on sampling, wording, timing, mode, response rates, and likely-voter assumptions.
Why It Matters
Polls influence campaign strategy, media coverage, fundraising, and public expectations. They are estimates, not votes, and are most informative when evaluated as trends or averages.
How It Works
A pollster defines the population, recruits respondents, asks questions, applies demographic weights, and reports estimates with methodological details. Election polls may screen for registered or likely voters.
History
Scientific polling developed in the twentieth century as researchers replaced unrepresentative straw polls with probability-based methods. Telephone, online, text, and mixed-mode polling later emerged.
Example
A statewide survey may estimate a Senate race at 48 percent to 46 percent with a stated margin of error.
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